still looking

The Bureau of Labor Statistics offers this summary of unemployment measures:

The six state measures are based on the same definitions as those published for the U.S.:

• [WA: 3.2%] U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
• [WA: 4.8%] U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
• [WA: 8.0%] U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);
• [WA: 8.4%] U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers;
• [WA: 9.2%] U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and
• [WA: 14.7%] U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

And here are our data — this charts the U-3, “official” number:

So far, energy costs have not been central either to the analysis of our current Great Recession or of the recovery now struggling to announce itself.

This article in London’s Guardian pushes the cost of oil back to center stage.  The news: the US government during the Bush administration (should we call it the Cheney-Bush administration?) apparently lobbied the International Energy Agency to underplay peak oil.  Result: IEA estimates show unlikely growth in oil production.  Note how much the forecast production relies on sources not yet known.

We’re not going to have to wait long.  As energy demand grows with economic recovery oil prices will climb, maybe into the stratosphere.

One more reason to expect an “L” of a recovery, one more reason for very cautious government budgets.

Update: study that chart for a minute.  Imagine what happens to us if the ‘not yets’ are not found.  We’re in for hard times soon.

Mark Zandy of Moody’s has this chart. And remember that hours worked per week is at a historic low — about 33, as I recall, down from 44 or so.

Gloomy picture in the UK.  Expecting the 3rd quarter data to show a bit of growth signaling the technical end of the recession, the turnaround wasn’t there as noted by the Telegraph’s economics editor. This despite ‘quantitative easing’ (massive gov’t. spending) paralleling our huge stimulus efforts.  Here’s his chart.

London Times editors note that our economists are having a hard time forecasting — one more worry.

And click to continue to see a British comparison of this recession/depression with others since the 30s. Read the rest of this entry »

can I afford this?

Noted on the Truthout site, this McClatchey story reports a Consumers Union study of how people are cutting back on their health care costs.

The Consumers Union survey of 1,002 adults from Sept. 17 to 20 found that among the ways people have tried to cut back on health care costs:

• 28 percent put off doctors’ visits.
• 25 percent have been unable to afford medical bills or medication.
• 22 percent put off medical procedures.
• 20 percent declined medical tests.
• 20 percent skipped filling prescriptions.
• 15 percent took expired medication.
• 15 percent skipped scheduled dosages of prescriptions.

The problems were more prevalent among households with incomes of less than $50,000, in which about two-thirds said they’d cut back on health care because of costs. Even where income topped $100,000, however, about one-third made similar decisions.

Notice how the cutbacks are made by people way up the income scale.

And consider the implications: lowered overall public health, rising taxpayer costs in social safety net services when thoise cutbacks translate into increased sickness and job losses, lower productivity, etc.

The estimable Robert Fisk reports in the London Independent that a group of nations — the Arab oil-exporting states joined by China, France, Russia, Brazil and others — have been secretly talking about replacing the dollar with a basket of currencies for global oil trading.  OMG to the max for the US.

Fisk notes the ramifications of this self-protective move away from the volatility and declining value of the dollar not only are a blow to the already-reeling US economy but possibly portend increased US-China conflict.

The independent editorializes “the end of the dollar spells the rise of a new order.”

But the significance of this development goes much further. Since the end of the Second World War the dollar has been the bedrock of world trade. The pre-eminence of the American currency flowed naturally from the economic dominance of the US. Virtually everyone traded with America so it made sense to use their currency.

But the US is not the dominant power that it once was. The financial crisis has left it hobbled with significant government and household debts and sharply reduced prospects for growth. Developing nations such as China, Brazil and India, on the other hand, have weathered the economic storm significantly better. So while this latest proposal is born of financial calculation, it is also a reflection of a new economic world order.

Mark this day on your calendar.  If these folks succeed we’re in for another huge blow to our economy — a fundamental reset.  One more reason to get our financial house in order — most especially including health care reform — faster than asap.

Update: Here is the Washington Post following with a useful survey of the pressures on the dollar. This underscores how precarious is our situation.

This post on the econ-blog Calculated Risk shows just how severe are the job losses in this severe recession.

Nothing in past recessions compares.

Click “read the rest…” below to see the chart full size.

Read the rest of this entry »

For those of you wishing to hear from some experts, here is an excellent, 20 minute discussion online among three experienced researchers in health care economics. Note this is moderated by the now-famous Dr. Atul Gawande, Harvard surgeon and New Yorker author.

Click here.  Note that the discussion is sub-divided into 7 topical parts if you wish to skip around.

Definitely worth your time.

Go here for an excellent, interactive graphic showing year by year the many, many pieces of legislation since Teddy Roosevelt.

At a glance:

One picture tells it all.

This maps the main roots of our current political-economic woes.

Note the time line — this didn’t start with last year’s recession.  But the speed and the depth of this “worst since the Depression” downturn is directly related.

This is not just a map of poor wages.  It also shows how serious are our problems with education and health care and politics and energy policy.

PS — US national productivity shot UP again last week — and so did unemployment!

Credit: the chart is from this lecture, courtesy Prof. Juan Cole in his Informed Comment blog.